Joanna Feeley, Trend Bible
Imagine you could predict the future. You'd know what
products or services your customers want from you and how they want you to
market them to them. There'd be no costly mistakes or dark alleyways in your
business journey; it would all be mapped out.
That's exactly what Joanna Feeley does for some of the
world's biggest retailers. She predicts the future. Although she says candidly
a lot of trend forecasting is instinct, but this instinct she clarifies is
simply well-honed experience.
Joanna is one of the UK's few trend spotters. Her business
Trend Bible started in 2007 and employs just five people full time with around
seven freelancers but is the only trend-forecasting agency in the North, one of
12 in UK, and globally one in 700. It's a small and secretive industry she
says, and even acknowledges that can be understandable. But Trend Bible likes
to share its secrets with small businesses and design conscious individuals;
that’s why she supports the Northern Design Festival.
In her talk she shared her strategies and principles to
spot trends so we can behave as future thinkers in our own business – because
as she points out, if you Google trend forecasting, you won’t find much
information to go on.
Sounds like a dark art – but Joanna makes it so clear and
simple – and its entirely relevant whatever business you are in.
Joanna helps her clients know what to do with the trends
they spot. Even if a future trend may not be good news for her customer, she
explains they need to know what lies ahead so they can respond in some way.
They need to adapt and align their product range with what the future customer
may feel, think or want.
Why do trends matter? Joanna told us that quite simply
insight instigates powerful change. It helps you see beyond the horizon, make
informed decisions, increase profits and elevate your brand.
But she points out not every trend might be right for your
business. This is the clever bit – she explains that you need to tie in the
trend with your “brand handwriting”. You need to decide if it is a game changer
for your product or service, or something that your customers will bypass. So
spotting a trend and deciding if it's right for you are not one in the same
thing.
Trends are not always about change, sometimes it's about
things that stay the same. For example our passion for ‘British Nostalgia’ in
interiors has evolved over last eight years but is still here - we still hark
to the past in our homes - and Cath Kidson cushions still sell well.
How does Trend Bible predict the future of the home
interiors market? What’s their secret?
They start by collating data. A trend panel of lots of
different types of people gets together for a day of horizon scanning, looking
at big events, films, literature, social policy change, cultural events –
anything on the horizon that might change society.
Then they cluster – pulling together common themes and
threads into macro-trends.
Finally there’s analysis. Interpreting those trends is an
important stage, and one where you pressure test if the trend is something
important for your business. “Know what you would never do as a brand” says
Joanna.
Trend Bible look not just at interiors, but trends in food,
entertainment, culture, education, family life, environment, health, personal
economics and so on. A global, national, regional or local lens is then
overlaid to see what it means.
So why should we be trend aware in business?
Knowing how your customer thinks, feels and shops tis
vital to sell them the appropriate product, at the right time, in the right
manner.
In the economic downturn, predicting trends is more in
demand than ever – people want a sense of security, to know what lies ahead and
to avoid costly mistakes.
Joanna’s talk was relevant for everyone from the ambitious
growing business to the start up or the student.
She encouraged us to look at our audiences and their
behaviours, understand where trends begin and when they stop being niche and
start becoming epidemics. The tipping point is where mass sales sit – the holy
grail of trend spotting Is knowing when the point will tip, well in advance.
She explained about “black swan events”. Moments in time
like 9/11 when the world tips on an axis and peoples’ behaviour changes
overnight. This terrible act of terrorism understandably led to fear
as an emotional reaction, but interestingly behavioural responses to this included
a NYC baby boom and champagne sales soaring by 300%. Sometimes predicting
trends is about spotting the unpredictable.
Finally Joanna concluded, the more you look at trends the
better you get at it – and it can be addictive. But what better way to run a
business than to know what’s around the corner?
Kari Owers from OPR
