Predicting future trends - Borrowing techniques from big business

Joanna Feeley, Trend Bible 

Imagine you could predict the future. You'd know what products or services your customers want from you and how they want you to market them to them. There'd be no costly mistakes or dark alleyways in your business journey; it would all be mapped out.

That's exactly what Joanna Feeley does for some of the world's biggest retailers. She predicts the future. Although she says candidly a lot of trend forecasting is instinct, but this instinct she clarifies is simply well-honed experience.

Joanna is one of the UK's few trend spotters. Her business Trend Bible started in 2007 and employs just five people full time with around seven freelancers but is the only trend-forecasting agency in the North, one of 12 in UK, and globally one in 700. It's a small and secretive industry she says, and even acknowledges that can be understandable. But Trend Bible likes to share its secrets with small businesses and design conscious individuals; that’s why she supports the Northern Design Festival.

In her talk she shared her strategies and principles to spot trends so we can behave as future thinkers in our own business – because as she points out, if you Google trend forecasting, you won’t find much information to go on.

Sounds like a dark art – but Joanna makes it so clear and simple – and its entirely relevant whatever business you are in.

Joanna helps her clients know what to do with the trends they spot. Even if a future trend may not be good news for her customer, she explains they need to know what lies ahead so they can respond in some way. They need to adapt and align their product range with what the future customer may feel, think or want.

Why do trends matter? Joanna told us that quite simply insight instigates powerful change. It helps you see beyond the horizon, make informed decisions, increase profits and elevate your brand.

But she points out not every trend might be right for your business. This is the clever bit – she explains that you need to tie in the trend with your “brand handwriting”. You need to decide if it is a game changer for your product or service, or something that your customers will bypass. So spotting a trend and deciding if it's right for you are not one in the same thing.

  

Trends are not always about change, sometimes it's about things that stay the same. For example our passion for ‘British Nostalgia’ in interiors has evolved over last eight years but is still here - we still hark to the past in our homes - and Cath Kidson cushions still sell well.

How does Trend Bible predict the future of the home interiors market? What’s their secret?

They start by collating data. A trend panel of lots of different types of people gets together for a day of horizon scanning, looking at big events, films, literature, social policy change, cultural events – anything on the horizon that might change society.

Then they cluster – pulling together common themes and threads into macro-trends.

Finally there’s analysis. Interpreting those trends is an important stage, and one where you pressure test if the trend is something important for your business. “Know what you would never do as a brand” says Joanna.

Trend Bible look not just at interiors, but trends in food, entertainment, culture, education, family life, environment, health, personal economics and so on. A global, national, regional or local lens is then overlaid to see what it means.

So why should we be trend aware in business?

Knowing how your customer thinks, feels and shops tis vital to sell them the appropriate product, at the right time, in the right manner.

In the economic downturn, predicting trends is more in demand than ever – people want a sense of security, to know what lies ahead and to avoid costly mistakes.

Joanna’s talk was relevant for everyone from the ambitious growing business to the start up or the student.

She encouraged us to look at our audiences and their behaviours, understand where trends begin and when they stop being niche and start becoming epidemics. The tipping point is where mass sales sit – the holy grail of trend spotting Is knowing when the point will tip, well in advance.

She explained about “black swan events”. Moments in time like 9/11 when the world tips on an axis and peoples’ behaviour changes overnight. This terrible act of terrorism understandably led to fear as an emotional reaction, but interestingly behavioural responses to this included a NYC baby boom and champagne sales soaring by 300%. Sometimes predicting trends is about spotting the unpredictable.

Finally Joanna concluded, the more you look at trends the better you get at it – and it can be addictive. But what better way to run a business than to know what’s around the corner?

Kari Owers from OPR